The 2006 House Elections on the Gulf Coast

In Louisiana and Texas, there will be several competitive House races in 2006. The reasons for this are simple, including Republican corruption (most significantly in Tom DeLay’s district in Texas), the strengthening of Democratic grassroots efforts in previous conservative strongholds, and the disasters of Hurriances Katrina and Rita.

Louisiana Third District- The Third District of Louisiana was one of the hardest hit congressional districts by the devastating Hurricane Katrina and the lacking federal response to the destruction of the hurricane will be a major issue in the 2006 House races. Incumbent Democrat Charlie Melancon benefits from being a conservative Democrat in a Republican district as well as leading the exposure of FEMA’s failures in the Katrina aftermath. Melancon is looking for a second term in this district and will face opposition from Republican Craig Romero, who will get support from the Republican National Committee in order to assuage concerns over President Bush’s handling of the hurricane. However, voter turnout will be low as many voters still have not returned to the district and those motivated to vote in the district in the 2006 House race will be inclined to keep Melancon in office to receive more of the leadership they saw in him late in 2005.

2006 House Projection: Charlie Melancon’s leadership in the post-Katrina Louisiana and his conservative politics will help him maintain his seat in a lowered turnout, defeating Craig Romero 60-40%.

Louisiana Seventh District- The Democrats have yet to find a taker for this heavily Republican district hard hit by Hurricane Rita, but the most likely candidate is attorney Hunter Lundy. Despite the shortcomings of the Republican-led response to the hurricane, incumbent Charles Boustany stands a terrific shot at re-election. Boustany will get some recognition from the national Republican Party due to their attempts to make up for poor efforts in the wake of disaster. If the Democrats could find a strong taker in this district for the 2006 House race, they would stand a solid chance but in lieu of that, Boustany has the strong edge over any late comers.

2006 House Projection: Charlie Boustany defeats whomever the Democrats put up in this district (most likely Hunter Lundy) 65-35%.

Texas Seventeenth District- With the wave of redistricting in Texas, incumbent Chet Edwards was the only Democrat in the state to survive Tom DeLay’s machinations against the party. Edwards managed a narrow victory in a 2005 special election and will face a tough fight in 2006 to keep his seat in a Republican haven (including President Bush’s ranch in Crawford). However, the Republican candidate, Van Taylor, is not strong enough to knock out the moderate Edwards despite Taylor’s Marine record. Despite the conservative commitment to the armed forces, Taylor has been an able enough leader in the district and will be able to make a move ahead with a slight mandate in the 2006 House race.

2006 House Projection: Incumbent Chet Edwards will give himself a little bit of breathing room in the 2006 House race, defeating Republican Van Taylor, 52-48%.

Texas Twenty-Second District- This district went from highly likely in the Republican column to highly likely in the Democratic column after the Tom DeLay fiasco. While some thought he could weather the storm and defeat Democratic candidate Nick Lampson in the general following victory in the Republican primary, DeLay did not want to risk the embarrassment of losing in such a strongly Republican district. Now, the Republicans are in trouble in this 2006 House race given that no Republicans are jumping to take on a heavily funded Democratic favorite. Lampson has 1.2 million dollars in the bank so far and there is little question as to whether or not he will win in the 2006 House elections. However, the Republicans can make a good fight of it if they get a credible candidate that rails against the ethical questions in the party. Independent former representative Steve Stockman, a former member of the Republican Party, will make it interesting for both sides in regards to which portion of the vote he takes away from, the anti-DeLay vote or the Republican vote.

2006 House Projection: With Tom DeLay leaving the Republicans in trouble within the district, Nick Lampson defeats the unknown Republican candidate with at least 58% of the vote, more if independent Steve Stockman takes away some of the Republican vote.