Know the movies and actors
Before venturing to predict which actors and actresses will win out of the blue, wait for a couple of lists to be released - at most, you should wait for the list of nominees. Once you get a clearer idea about which movies and actors are being considered the heavyweights this time around, you can look through the list, and do some research on the backgrounds of the movies and actors. Was there a particular actor who stood out and earned critical acclaim? Was there a movie that addressed a particularly pertinent issue in a remarkably incisive way? Getting to know the actors and movies will help you be more spot on with your predictions.
Read through the expert opinions
No matter what the situation, there will always be a number of opinions from the experts in the field, in the days preceding the Oscars. Make sure you draw up your own list of predictions first, and then proceed to compare it with the opinions of reputable experts. A comparison between your own list and theirs will help you see where you were right, and will also help you spot weaknesses in your predictions.
Watch the movies
There are a large number of movies that are released every year, but it is next to impossible to watch all of them. Wait until the bulk of the movies have been released, then only buy the ones that have received top ratings. Begin watching them one by one, and conduct a critical analysis with a neutral and unbiased point of view. Once you have watched all the movies, you will be in a better position to make educated and intelligent predictions.